Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 79330.432753 83754.965873 88180.730188 92936.786242 97900.035857 102923.577492 108389.324797
2026-01-18 71906.326130 78635.765659 85556.333888 93195.857655 101382.878323 109883.682856 119367.876512
2026-01-25 66597.308731 74895.739398 83618.901451 93452.614008 104209.858591 115599.799322 128551.335785
2026-02-01 62253.780931 71688.877097 81791.677253 93382.181736 106278.792257 120154.816620 136179.714560
2026-02-08 59221.315575 69617.607834 80929.228619 94103.918002 108977.880604 125200.781919 144182.346544
2026-02-15 56179.620997 67302.640324 79583.236117 94083.785451 110670.637014 128983.883722 150662.209029
2026-02-22 54336.054900 66206.864303 79485.399217 95356.197615 113721.804374 134217.413455 158727.247656
2026-03-01 52461.948141 64952.089062 79095.809836 96193.853878 116193.532786 138734.950899 165944.923355
2026-03-08 50255.257969 63190.329860 78012.511867 96127.513500 117535.830114 141893.624236 171558.456449
2026-03-15 48457.315434 61823.868007 77311.850644 96434.709835 119251.339943 145439.240159 177595.247674
2026-03-22 47458.191235 61360.395890 77633.155612 97911.776824 122317.339679 150549.909723 185472.017464
2026-03-29 46338.398332 60692.848790 77660.939353 98995.879640 124886.968551 155064.380857 192654.839310
2026-04-05 45040.760737 59771.092809 77357.195886 99668.815494 126971.445462 159034.136118 199252.610977
2026-04-12 43560.942438 58568.574923 76663.783577 99826.910809 128405.609202 162216.120700 204918.446263
2026-04-19 42218.155642 57487.180060 76074.311484 100072.168534 129915.146159 165471.887283 210673.564520
2026-04-26 40801.594168 56260.378944 75257.063264 99991.752218 130989.837113 168178.978005 215757.362980
2026-05-03 39862.600376 55611.174022 75134.242125 100753.512480 133089.635540 172130.936097 222370.399163
2026-05-10 38619.733832 54524.517183 74418.254496 100731.921576 134184.990760 174834.468762 227450.892773
2026-05-17 38053.727498 54302.016729 74788.089045 102077.047183 136992.497853 179659.769326 235174.000480
2026-05-24 37318.984543 53829.080125 74812.667960 102962.501939 139210.023731 183755.463369 242011.497797
2026-05-31 36213.931987 52826.696198 74118.323384 102892.374068 140190.082427 186294.457210 246909.716641
2026-06-07 35326.200963 52089.030077 73745.146854 103217.087253 141659.968423 189442.593341 252578.845772
2026-06-14 34985.065918 52080.166011 74322.013713 104778.236828 144724.871426 194617.233697 260829.901243